INTRODUCTIONSStructured responses to the limited capacity of organizations and individuals to manage the ambiguity inherent in intelligence analysis are needed to strengthen "chains of inference" or maximize the rigor of judgments. This essay will focus on overcoming cognitive and, to a lesser extent, personal and organizational biases and limitations. Organizational issues that affect the quality of analysis, such as analyst training, are beyond the scope of this short essay. Moreover, many of the most high-profile intelligence failures are attributable less to organizational obstacles than to political or psychological barriers. The human mind is necessarily vulnerable to cognitive biases in order to distill complexity for understanding, but this results in several well-documented challenges to accurate intelligence analysis. The many challenges of the analytical process require structured methods to mitigate vulnerabilities, thereby strengthening inference chains. WHY CHAINS OF INFERENCE NEED STRENGTHENING “The circumstances in which accurate perception is most difficult are exactly the circumstances in which intelligence analysis is typically conducted. – manage very ambiguous situations on the basis of information processed gradually under pressure for early judgment. » An analyst must manage personal and organizational barriers to critical thinking, overcoming a series of biases and limitations. There are three main categories of biases and limitations to recognize and address: cognitive, personal, and organizational. Inherent human infallibility persists despite an acute awareness of vulnerabilities and without structured methods to counter this, cr...... middle of paper ......ation”. Psychology of intelligence analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence. 1999. accessed March 2010. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art7 .htmlHeuer, Richards J. “Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind.” Psychology of intelligence analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence. 1999. accessed March 2010. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art9 .htmlHeuer, Richards J. “Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses.” Psychology of intelligence analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence. 1999. accessed March 2010. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art11 .html