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Essay / The econometric analysis of the dynamics of the economy...
SUMMARYMuch research has been done by others on the analysis of the relationship between debt and economic growth. However, little attention has been paid to the econometric analysis of the dynamics of economic growth, debts and budget deficits of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The main objective of this article is to re-examine the relationship between debt and growth in sub-Saharan Africa, using Granger causality to test the relationship between debts, economic growth and budget deficit. Additionally, we will use the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Augmented Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to test for the presence of co-integration. <...To be continued…>IntroductionIt will come as no surprise that the debt burden has a major influence on economic growth. However, both developed and developing countries continually finance themselves through debt, such as public debt, public debt and external debt. In 2005, the G8 summit was held in Gleneagles. All subsequent meetings, including the international community, agreed to pursue HIPC debt cancellation. As a result, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) was introduced as a new policy tool aimed at providing additional support and financing to the world's poorest and most indebted countries. All countries reaching the completion point under the HIPC Initiative will receive immediate and irrevocable cancellation of their external debt owed to the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the IMF (International Development Association and Monetary Fund). international, 2007). So far, as of May 2010, the United States has accumulated a staggering level of debt, US$1.3 trillion, considered dangerous for the economy as a whole. On top of that, Europe is in the middle of paper......f several debts and economic growth deficit. Thus, examining the causality between budget deficits and growth is of great interest for policy purposes. If the deficit negatively affects economic growth, then the deficit target within SSA is relevant. Conversely, if the causality goes from growth to the deficit, then it becomes difficult to achieve a deficit target, because it depends on economic activity and not just political decisions. Finally, this study will provide a reference for researchers interested in future related research in SSA countries. Research structure The remainder of this article is organized as follows: we present the methodological framework in the following section. In Section 3, we report the data used and the estimation results. Section 4 raises policy implications and draws some conclusions. Additional tables are presented in the appendix.