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Essay / Technical Analysis of the Stock Market - 1102
Over the years of stock market studies, two distinct schools of thought have emerged, two radically different methods of arriving at the answers to the trader's problem: what and when. In street jargon, one of these is commonly referred to as fundamental or statistical analysis, and the other as technical analysis. The technical term, in its application to the stock market, has acquired a special meaning. It refers to the study of the action of the market itself, as opposed to the study of goods traded by the market. Technical analysis is the science of recording, generally in graphical form, the actual history of trading (price changes, volumes and transactions, etc.) on a given security or in "averages", then deducing from this history illustrates the likely future trend. . According to Park and Irwin (2007), recent studies indicate that technical trading strategies consistently generate economic profits in a range of speculative markets, at least until the early 1990s. Of a total of 95 recent studies, 56 studies find positive results regarding technical trading strategies, 20 studies obtained negative results, and 19 studies indicate mixed results. In pioneering work, Smidt (1965b) studied amateur traders in US commodity futures markets and found that more than half of those surveyed used charts exclusively or moderately to identify trends. Charts are working tools of the technical analyst, and they have been developed in a multitude of forms and styles to graphically represent almost everything that is happening in the market as well as to plot the "clues" derived from them. From a more recent study, Billingsley and Chance (1996) found that approximately 60% of commodity trading advisors (CTAs) rely heavily or halfway on paper...... Market prices already contain within themselves everything that can be known about the future and, in this sense, have ruled out future eventualities as much as is humanly possible. There are also negative empirical results in many pioneering and widely cited studies of stock market technical analysis, such as Fama and Blume (1966), Jensen and Benington (1970), and Van Horne and Parker (1967, 1968). Sullivan et al (1999, 2003) and Olson (2004) are among recent studies that have shown that technical trade rules do generate positive economic benefits before the 1990s, but that these benefits decline markedly or disappear completely over time and globalization. These results can be explained by temporary market inefficiencies prior to the 1990s. According to Park and Irwin, 2007, there are two possible explanations for the temporary inefficiencies