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  • Essay / Understanding Taylor's Rule: A Guide for Central Banks...

    Although the actual coefficients (i.e. β1 and β2) in the formula are not fixed numbers, Taylor proposed 0.5 for both as a general rule for coefficients. in his initial 1993 article introducing Taylor's rule. Thus, when the proposed coefficients of 0.5 are adopted, if the difference between actual and desired inflation or between actual and target GDP increases by one percentage point, short-term interest rates should be increased by 'half a percentage point. Due to the nature of the relationships at play in the Taylor Rule formula, real-world events can often create scenarios in which the inflation rate and real GDP can change without causing a change in the interest rate in the short term. For every percentage point increase in the real inflation rate, if the logarithm of real GDP decreased by three points, the short-term interest rate would not change. When used by central banks as a rule of thumb for setting monetary policies, the Taylor Rule provides clear guidance on how to balance competing forces within the system.